Respon Dinamika Atmosfer Saat Terjadi Siklon Tropis di Selatan Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29303/goescienceed.v7i4.3032Keywords:
Tropical Cyclone, South Indian Ocean, Atmospheric Dynamics, Rainfall, Poisson Regression.Abstract
The Indonesian Maritime Continent is surrounded by tropical cyclone (TC) basins that influence weather variability, one of which is the South Indian Ocean (SIO) basin. This study aims to analyze the statistical trend of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the SIO basin during the period 1996–2025, as well as the spatial patterns of atmospheric dynamics and their impacts on rainfall variability over the land areas of Java, Bali, and the Lesser Sunda Islands (Nusa Tenggara). The study area covers 10°–15°S and 100°–125°E and is divided into five domains, each measuring 5° × 5°. The datasets used include historical TC records from IBTrACS, PERSIANN precipitation data, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and ERA5 reanalysis data. Data processing involved Poisson regression analysis to assess statistical trends and anomaly composite analysis to characterize the spatial patterns of atmospheric conditions. The statistical results show that among the five study domains, a statistically significant increasing trend in TC frequency occurs in Domain 2, with an increase of 22.23% per five-year period. Spatially, the impacts of atmospheric dynamics and rainfall distribution strongly depend on the location of TC occurrence. TCs occurring in the western domains (Domains 1 and 2) induce divergence and rainfall deficits over western to central Java, while enhancing rainfall over Bali to East Nusa Tenggara (NTT). As TCs shift toward the central domain (Domain 3), convergence becomes concentrated over eastern Java to West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), resulting in increased rainfall in these areas, while rainfall deficits occur over western and central Java and NTT. Meanwhile, TCs occurring in the eastern domains (Domains 4 and 5) enhance rainfall over Bali to NTT but induce divergence and rainfall deficits across Java.
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