Analisis Variasi Temporal Magnitude of Completeness (Mc) dan b-value di Wilayah Bali-Nusa Tenggara Tahun 2017-2023

Authors

  • I Gusti Ketut Satria Bunaga BMKG
  • Ein Nuzulul Laily 1Balai Besar Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Wilayah III Denpasar
  • Chadek Dimas Rakadhio Anggoro Balai Besar Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Wilayah III Denpasar
  • Kautsar Nafi Balai Besar Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Wilayah III Denpasar
  • Izza Mitha Ariyani
  • Cahyo Nugroho Balai Besar Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Wilayah III Denpasar

Abstract

Abstract: Penelitian ini menganalisis variasi temporal magnitude of completeness (Mc) dan b-value di wilayah Bali–Nusa Tenggara selama periode 2017–2023. Estimasi Mc dilakukan menggunakan metode Maximum Curvature (MAXC), sedangkan b-value dihitung dengan pendekatan Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa nilai Mc dan b-value berfluktuasi dari tahun ke tahun, seiring dengan peningkatan jumlah dan distribusi sensor seismik. Nilai Mc cenderung menurun setelah 2019, menunjukkan peningkatan sensitivitas sistem pemantauan. Sementara itu, variasi b-value mencerminkan perubahan kondisi tegangan di kerak bumi. Temuan ini diharapkan berkontribusi pada pengembangan model bahaya gempa bumi dan strategi mitigasi di wilayah Bali – Nusa Tenggara kedepannya.

 

Keywords: Mc, b-value, Bali-Nusa Tenggara, MAXC, MLE, gempabumi

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Published

2025-08-30 — Updated on 2025-09-02

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Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): Agustus

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